Take Two

Well so much for resuming transmission 🙂  I will have to make more of an effort to post, but really it’s been nothing but bad news.  Late Nov/Early Dec saw my worst downswing ever, and there really wasn’t much point in bleating about it!  Suffice to say I just couldn’t get a hand to hold up, I had KK into AA several times and then AA beaten by KK twice in a row.  That and all the donks catching miracle one and two outers on the river made for a downswing of over 20 buyins.  It was brutal.

But I’m slowly coming back.  I’m participating actively over at Stoxpoker where I am a regular member through their awesome Truly Free Poker training promotion.  I’m getting some coaching from LillaRya over there and that is going well.  The hard part has been finding the fundamental leaks in my game.  Basically there hasn’t been major glaring spots so its been hard to come to terms with not posting solid results.  I’ve cut back on the multitabling and have been focusing really hard on not only table but seat selection, which has begun to pay dividends.  Hopefully I’ve turned the corner and have started the long climb back to winning territory.  My graph looks brutal, but I won’t post it until I’m back in the black.

Still having fun though, and that’s what its all about.

Resuming Transmission!

Well it’s been a while!  The main reason I haven’t posted for some time is that I’ve been playing tons of poker 🙂  I think I set a goal of 50k hands for this month and I’ve cruised past that already, I’m up to 63k with nine days to go in the month.  Essentially I’ve settled on ten tables, and I’m using TableNinja for FT which is making life a lot easier.  That said in gross terms I am still slightly behind for the month, down about $85.  But with rakeack I’m up about $400, so essentially I have turned into the rakeback pro!  It would be nice to actually make some profit purely on the cards however.  It’s kind of frustrating in this regard.  Although I am obviously going to lose some bb/100 by ten tabling, I have been working quite hard on my game.  I’m watching a few videos … going through some of Ed Miller’s series at the moment.  I’ve incorporated some improved plays into my game … 3 betting more and also stealing a lot against limpers.  Overall the single biggest problem has been I have been losing some big all in pots with big pairs … perhaps I play these too strongly.  But still, the only way is up, and even breakeven poker with this sort of volume is going to bring in some nice extra spending money with the rakeback!

All in all I’m having a great time.  Will update for the end November results!

October is Over!

Well what a month October was.  As for Real Fun .. well the last half of October that attitude took quite a beating!  I try not to bleat about bad beats and running cold etc … but seriously, I think I really, really ran as bad as possible towards the end after what was a really positive start to the month.  So often I made second best hand, I’d make trips on the river only for that card to make villian a straight.  I ran terribly in coinflips as well, and lost count of the number of times I got done with hands like AK vs AQ.  To demonstrate, here is October’s graph.  Take a look at results vs all-in EV….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It really was tough.  You go through periods in poker where you run well and it seems like an easy game.  Then you go through these sort of periods and you think will I ever win a hand again?  I went back through the database and was generally quite happy that I didn’t play many (I can’t say none) hands poorly or tilt.  The vast majority were genuine coolers or bad beats.  But of course it got me to thinking about how many hands do you have to play before the “luck” factor evens itself out and the skill edge begins to really show.  People talk about certain amounts of hands … whether it is 10k, or 50k, or 100k.  But doing some surfing, I found this excellent post and analysis that really tries to look at how many hands you have to play before you get within 1% of your true win rate.  Short summary:  MILLIONS of hands.  So who said poker is a skill game?  Yes it is, but the long run is really much, much longer than people think.  It always gets me steamed up when people try to say variance doesn’t exist and if you are down more than 10 buyins you are just playing bad.  Well it’s fairly clear that this isn’t the case, its very easy, indeed extremely likely if you play enough hands that you will have a run where you just get coolered and bad beat relentlessly.  For any serious player, I strongly recommend you take a look at the link and read the article through.  It really did help me understand the nature of variance and strengthen my belief that I just had to keep playing solid poker.

So here’s hoping November is a little more positive.  Still having fun, I’m now six tabling 25nl on a regular basis and really enjoying it.  The rakeback alone is nice, so break-even poker is quite profitable, although it would be nice to do better than that!  I’d like to get 50k hands in this month, and lets see if we can try and get that results line a little closer to EV 🙂  Good luck at the tables all.

Australian Poker Hero

Full Tilt are running a promotion called “Australian Poker Hero”.  Only eligible to Australian residents, essentially it is a series of freeroll qualifers to determine entrants to play a six player Sit n Go on national TV, where the winner will receive an entry package to the 2010 Aussie Millions Main Event.  Last night I decided to give it a try and played the round 1 qualifer.  There were 1259 entrants, and the top 10 progressed to round 2.  I entered for a bit of a laugh, and was playing five cash tables at the same time.  These freerolls are a bit of a crapshoot – the standard of play is generally pretty ordinary.  My basic philosophy was that to get anywhere you needed to get some chips early, or bust out … not much point playing for four hours on the short stack to come 7oth.  So the plan was to push any hand I got hard, and not really pay attention to the table at all – I was concentrating on the cash games.

Well the problem with that plan was that I had a terrible run of cards.  I don’t think I played a hand in the first two levels.  In the third I think it was limped to my BB and I had something like K6o, I checked, the flop came with a K and I bet and got the folds.  This put me up to my starting position.  Then over the next level or so I had a few small hands, slowly chipped up to about 2500 or so.  I think playing the cash games really helped, becuase it was easy to stay patient on the tournament table.  Of course players were busting left and right, and some big stacks developed fairly quickly.  Then in the 75/150 level I got a break … and mde two full houses in two hands, and got paid both times.  Suddenly I had some chips, and was double the average stack.  I continued my strategy though and stole the odd blind.  Then about level 10 I got another break when an aggro player raised big, I have QQ in the BB and jam, and he calls with TT and I flop the Q.  Suddenly I’m 20th with about 150 remaining of the 1259 runners and I start to think hang on a minute I have a chance here.

So finally I closed down all the cash tables (interestingly I was down two buyins in cash within ten minutes and it took me about two hours to grind it back up to plus one buyin!) and concentrated on the qualifer.  Continued to be almost totally card dead but every now and again made the odd hand that let me chip up.  It worked really well becuase I didn’t get into any marginal situations.  Eventually I was in the top ten and there was only 20 to go.  Then it slowed to a crawl as the “bubble” approached.  Amazingly, people had little idea how to play this situation … one guy who was a clear second in chips was still playing hands.  Once it got down to 12 I was ready to fold anything, just got the odd steal here or there to keep my stack level.  I was only going to play AA and only then if the situation was right … I folded AK once, there was no point risking it when there was several shortstacks.  But Mr 2nd in chips didnt play this way and blew off his chipstack to be the bubble boy in 11th.  Five hours later, 1:30am, and I had qualifed for round 2!

So tonight is the final.  At this stage about 530 runners and the top 3 win the TV prize package.  Realisitically its still a very long shot but I am excited, I’ve never even been in with a chance with something like this before.  Will take a lot of luck for hands to hold up … but you never know.  Here’s hoping!

Update

Have been playing quite a bit lately.  I’ve been really enjoying playing more tables as I get back into the swing of things.  At the moment I’ve settled on five as the best pace for me.  In terms of limits, I’ve added a few 25nl tables, but the game I really enjoy at the moment is the 10nl six max deep stack with ante tables.  I’m a blind stealer, I raise in late position with all sorts of hands, and I’ve found at the lowest limits that villians don’t really pay much attention to bet sizing.  So its amazingly profitable to make small raises of about 3bb from the CO/BTN, with the antes and the blinds there is 2.7bb right there to be taken.  If everyone folds, thats a great return on a minimal investment.  I ran a report on HEM yesterday to track how I am doing on my steals. Filtering by CO/BTN and as first raiser, I’m returning 91bb/100 from that situation!  So as I said, amazingly profitable.

That said, my awesome stretch of running hot has come to a bit of an abrupt end as I always knew it would.  Yesterday in particular was one of those days where I made second best hand a lot, or where you jam with JJ preflop against a guy playing 66/38, knowing his range is huge but this time he has KK.  Anyway thats just par for the course and I know it will even itself out in the end.  My allin EV was well below my actual results while I was running hot, but this has now turned around and I’m actually behind EV for the first time since I restarted.  All will come good though.

Lastly, some thoughts about “red line”.  I’ve seen a lot of players focusing on trying to get the red line positive.  Mine tends to go through long stretches of breakeven followed by sudden dips.  At the moment mine is well down overall.  I’ve given some thought to this, and I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s an inevitable side effect of the style I am playing.  I try and steal a lot and my continuation bet percentage is pretty high.  Often that means I fire on the flop and sometimes the turn then have to give up when some donk overshoves me on a dry board because they called with 96o and managed to hit a piece when I’m cbetting with air.  But my aggressive image means that I get a lot of value with my made hands.  My blue line win at showdown is skyrocketing.  So I think the red line is the price I pay for this, and as long as the results overall are positive I’m not going to stress to much over the redline.

WPT 15k starts today at the Bellagio.  Should be a really strong field almost entirely of pros, will be worth following.

Red Pros at the Micros

Been a while since the last post!  Have been playing a fair bit, getting about 500 hands a day in 3 tabling.  I mostly play at Full Tilt, which of course advertises “play with the pros”.  I got the opportunity the other day when I was scanning for tables and saw Scott Fischman sit at a 10nl table.  I immediately joined before the waiting list blew out as it always does the moment the table shows a red pro has sat down.  Of course everyone immediately looks for the chance to play a big hand against the pro.  Scott actually played really tight, I guess he well understands that everyone is interested in stacking him for bragging rights, even if it is only for $10.  Here’s the only hand I managed to get involved in:

***** Hand History for Game 15284303390 ***** (Full Tilt)
$10.00 USD NL Texas Hold’em – Monday, October 12, 05:02:46 ET 2009
Table Big Tree (6 max ante deep) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: ArnoldF ( $14.87 USD )
Seat 2: Hero ( $22.05 USD )
Seat 3: b3njam1n ( $28.00 USD )
Seat 4: Scott Fischman ( $25.50 USD )
Seat 5: Hynes1986 ( $16.15 USD )
Seat 6: Burrrrd ( $20.00 USD )
Burrrrd posts small blind [$0.05 USD].
ArnoldF posts big blind [$0.10 USD].
ArnoldF posts ante of [$0.02 USD].
Hero posts ante of [$0.02 USD].
b3njam1n posts ante of [$0.02 USD].
Scott Fischman posts ante of [$0.02 USD].
Hynes1986 posts ante of [$0.02 USD].
Burrrrd posts ante of [$0.02 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [  3c 3d ]
Hero raises [$0.47 USD]
b3njam1n folds
Scott Fischman calls [$0.47 USD]
Hynes1986 folds
Burrrrd folds
ArnoldF folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, Qh, 4h ]
Hero checks
Scott Fischman checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
Hero bets [$0.90 USD]
Scott Fischman folds
Hero wins $0.90 USD
Hero wins $1.13 USD from main pot

 Ok so not very exciting really 🙂  What annoyed me though was one of the players was giving Scott a hard time about not playing enough hands, and soon after Scott left the table.  Later, on 2+2 I saw a thread about red pros playing micros and the number of people that were making dumb comments like “busto” was unbelieveable.  It’s fairly obvious I think that the red pros come and play at the micros every now and again as part of the deal that allows Full Tilt to make the claim that you can play with pros on their site.  But the rubbish they have to put up with is ridiculous.  I’m not surprised they don’t do it very often.  Anyway it seems kinda shallow but I enjoyed my momentary game with someone who has a “name” in poker.

More generally I’ve continued to do pretty well at 10nl, so much so I’m currently running at 16ptbb/100 hands!  I know that’s unsustainable in the long run.  I’ve thought about moving up to 25nl, but as per the intent of the blog I’m having a lot of fun at 10nl and trying hard not to let the lure of playing higher tempt me.  Plus I’m not sure its worth it anyway, people stack off so light at 10nl!  I’ll get to 10k hands and reassess, but for now enjoying playing and having my hands mostly hold up 🙂

You See Some Interesting Stuff at the Micros …

… yes you really do.  I played a nice long session tonight, three tabling and got about 500 hands in.  A lot of fun, came out marginally ahead but had a ball.  This was my favourite hand of the night.  I’d been fairly aggressive on this table, and I’d been c-betting and raising quite a bit.  I’m not sure why, but I decided to back off on this hand.  I was glad I did, take a look at what villian shows down (Villian was over 50 VPIP by the way):

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (CO) ($10)
Button ($12.68)
SB ($14.08)
BB ($16.30)
UTG ($11.18)
MP ($8.08)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $0.35, 2 folds, BB raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.45) J, J, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.45) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.45) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $1.45 | Rake: $0.09

Results:
BB had A, A (four of a kind, Aces).
Hero had K, Q (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
Outcome: BB won $1.36

Quad Aces!  Normally I c-bet the hell out of a JJ7 flop, again I can only say the reason I didn’t was that I had just recently taken down several pots (although I did lose one to bring me back to original buyin) and thought my c-betting was starting to get a bit over the top.  Then of course the turn A and while that could be a good scare card for me to represent AK I didn’t fire again.  But villian … what is villian thinking????  Perhaps he fears I have a J on the flop, but then to turn the full house and not bet?  Being generous, I’ll say that he was trying to give me the chance to bluff at it.  But when you river the absolute stone cold nuts, how can he not bet here?  If I did have a J I would have to call.  Just bizarre, but thanks Mr Villain, that saved me some cash!

I’ve been running pretty well lately.  Holdem Manager says my winnings are about 3 buyins above EV, so my hands have generally been holding up.  Always a nice feeling when things are going well, and it should be savoured.  It’s easy to think it will always be this way, the mirror image of the sometimes seemingly never-ending downswing.  I know which one I prefer!

Playing for Fun Translates To Better Poker

One of the big advantages I have noticed in “playing for fun” is that I am far less stressed about the status of my bankroll.  At the moment just playing 10nl I effectively am bankrolled way, way over the “recommended” limits for the level, and it is very easy to not treat the numbers on the screen as “money” in any meaningful sense.  What I am finding this is translating to is a willingness to play a much more loose aggressive style and push hands a lot harder, and play position more aggressively.  All these concepts are well known and if you read any of the poker literature and scan the forums etc, you’ll always come across the recommendation that you have to not treat the electronic number on your screen as real money, and not to play scared or passive poker.  But I wonder … how many of us “hobbyists” do really play that way, without that fear deep down?  It’s one thing to be rolled for a level, its another to have that healthy disregard that allows you to ship what remains of your 100bb stack in on the flop as a 3bet semi-bluff.  I have to confess I found that hard to do when I was playing 100nl even though I was rolled for it.

These days though, playing 10nl I’m finding it much, much easier to do that (its only $10, right?)  and its immediately translating into better results, but more importantly I just feel that I’m playing way better becuase I am not afraid.  If my read is that I’m being raised by the CO on the steal, I’m 3-betting the right villian much more out of the SB.  I’m raising TAGs on the Button with a huge range, and it’s working.  I think my preflop button stats currently look something like 40/32!  And at the end of the day, playing a (sensible) LAG game is just straight out more fun. 

Obviously, I’m not going to be making a milion dollars at 10nl.  But it really does help to come down some levels and work on your game at a level where the money is relatively insignficant.  If you truly can play without fear, what a different (and fun) game this poker thing really is.  I would love to hear from other players whether they genuinely feel they have the mentality that allows them to play the aggressive style of poker that is most profitable.  Too often, I feel we all think, ok I have 25 buyins for the next level, time to move up.  But when faced with that big draw on the flop, how easy is it to still pull the trigger when the dollar value of your bluff is now three digits rather than two? I wonder how many players consider if this is subconsciously impacting their play when they move up and consequently, don’ t have the success they did when they were killing lower levels.  Looking back, I’m pretty sure I fit into this category.

WSOPE Main Event Result

Oh yeah, kinda forgot to mention that Barry Shulman defeated Daniel Negreanu heads up for the WSOPE ME title.  I actually sweated the final table pretty closely via the live reporting from the good folks at Pokernews.  Like the majority of the poker world I was cheering pretty hard for Kid Poker, he’s a good ambassador for the game.  A funny summary/parody/newsreport of the final table outcome is over at Wicked Chops Poker, who compared Barry’s win to the Dark Side defeating the Jedi (replete with Darth Vader photo in place of Barry).  That’s probably a little harsh but roughly sums up I think the general feeling across the poker community.  Definitely recommend the WCP post for a laugh!

Daniel got pretty unlucky to be beaten from what I saw.  Several times he had Aces and either got no action or had them cracked … at one stage he had Barry all in with A5s vs AA and Barry made the flush.  Then when Daniel got shortstacked he managed to grind it back to almost level before the critical hand, where Negreanu (ironically) got all in on a J high flop with QJ, Barry shows AA, the turn is a J which brings the house down, and then Barry rivers one of his two A outs to cripple Daniel.  Shortly thereafter is was 44 vs TT all in and that was that.  You can see a video of the critical hands here, it’s not great but captures the audience reaction – including unfortunately Barry Shulman’s wife whom almost everyone must have wanted to throttle as she whooped up the miracle river that delivered Barry the title.

Pushing Too Hard at the End of a Frustrating Session

Last night I settled in to play a really decent session, probably about 2.5 hours which is the longest I’ve played since I came back. It ended up being one of those really frustrating sessions where everytime you raise in position you get called, or 3 bet, and miss the board, make a continuation bet on a dry board, get called, fire another barrel on the turn, get called and then get to showdown to see you’ve been called down (and beaten) by third pair. Alternatively you get AA and thats when everyone folds.

Eventually, this hand happened late in my session when I was down about two buyins, and the villian was a loosish aggressive playing about 32/21. He did seem reasonable though, so when he 3 bet out of the BB it was possibly the classic squeeze play. Hence, I put him on a widish range, given his loose stats. Possibly I should have 4 bet right there and then been done with it if he jammed, but that’s exactly what had been happening all night. So I call, knowing I will have position on him. The hand goes down like this:

weaktight | Hand | AJo – $0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem

Shared via AddThis

So my logic on the turn was that I have an OESD, plus the A might be good as well, for a maximum of thirteen outs … four eights, four kings, two jacks and three aces. So I elect to jam, thinking I have some fold equity as well. Too aggressive?

He ended up showing KK and then roundly abused me as a donk when I rivered the straight. I laughed and told him I had plenty of outs and hadn’t he ever pushed a draw before? He then points out what did I put him on, many of my outs were probably dead. Looking back, I think he was probably right. Even though I thought he could be squeezing, the Aces and Kings were always going to be a fair part of his range.

So perhaps tilty play, and I got lucky to bring me back to even. My results are now well ahead of EV, I guess thats part of the fun 🙂

Would be interested to hear thoughts on how this hand could have been played differently.